Labour's Big Win: Will New Homes Begin and Hope Shine In?
It's a landslide! Labour has achieved a stunning , although expected victory in the general election, securing over 400 seats - far surpassing the 326 required for a majority. Sir Kier Starmer stated that the UK is waking up to "the sunlight of hope," signalling a fresh start for the nation after 14 years. So what about the housing sector?
Following Labour's monumental victory in the General Election, here are my thoughts on the possible impact on the housing sector;
I'm sure that we are all aware of the significant impact Labour's landslide victory, securing over 400 seats, will have on our industry and the broader economy. The UK's political landscape has shifted dramatically, and with it, we see a renewed sense of hope and a commitment to addressing long-standing issues within the housing sector.
Whether you are happy with the result or not, you cannot underestimate the importance of political stability, which has been lacking over the past decade, and its positive influence on, not only the property market, but on peoples attitudes too. With probable interest rate cuts on the horizon, we anticipate a more buoyant market, fostering an environment conducive to growth. However, it's imperative that Labour remains true to its centrist stance and avoids rushing policies without thorough consideration to prevent unintended consequences.
It is also important that we have long-term, cross-party cooperation to deliver the right kind of homes where they are desperately needed. This sentiment resonates deeply with us at Cope & Co., as we recognise the importance of a collaborative approach to address the housing crisis effectively.
Labour's ambitious pledge to develop 1.5 million homes, alongside their commitment to reforming planning rules and prioritising development on brownfield and so-called "grey belt" land, is a monumental step forward. At Cope & Co., we welcome these initiatives, as the chronic undersupply of affordable housing has been a persistent challenge for many years. Sustainable housing is the bedrock of a strong economy, and Labour’s detailed plans to inspire investment and improve housing supply are crucial for our industry's future stability and growth. We support Labour's investment in planning departments and the quicker release of development sites to meet housing demands.
Nevertheless, careful deliberation is essential, particularly regarding the private rental market. The proposed ban on Section 21 'no fault' evictions must be balanced against the need to maintain a sufficient supply of rental properties, especially in urban areas where demand is high. Adequate resources in the court system to address anti-social behaviour are vital to avoid a sell-off by landlords, which could exacerbate the current shortfall of rental properties.
The possible 'rebirth' of the Renters Reform Bill must be carefully considered and must take account of the lessons learned to trying to push through the Conservative's version of the bill just prior to the election being called.
One Labour proposal that I do not agree with is the possible introduction of Rent Controls. Rent controls, while intended to make housing more affordable, can have several detrimental effects on the rental market. They will lead to an increased reduction in the supply of rental properties as landlords may find it less profitable to rent out their properties or invest in maintaining them.
This reduction in supply will exacerbate housing shortages, making it harder for renters to find accommodation. Additionally, rent controls can discourage new construction of rental units, as developers might perceive lower returns on investment. Over time, the quality of rental housing may decline, as landlords might not have sufficient funds or incentives to maintain and upgrade their properties. Consequently, while rent controls aim to protect tenants, they can lead to a less dynamic and lower-quality rental market.
I also believe that Labour could 'steal' the Reform party commitment to reverse Section 24. Reversing Section 24, which phased out mortgage interest tax relief for landlords, could provide several benefits to the private rental sector.
By allowing landlords to deduct mortgage interest costs from rental income, more investors will be encouraged to enter or remain in the rental market. This would lead to an increased supply of rental properties. Also, with the financial pressure reduced on landlords, they might be less inclined to increase rents to cover higher tax liabilities, potentially stabilising or even lowering rental prices for tenants.
Landlords would have more financial flexibility to invest in property maintenance and improvements, enhancing the quality of rental housing. Smaller landlords, who were particularly affected by Section 24, might be more likely to stay in the market. This diversity of landlords can contribute to a healthier rental market.
Labour's pledge to lower the stamp duty threshold for first-time buyers from £425,000 to £300,000 in April 2025 is obviously a positive step, however, there is still a question on what incentives there will be for first time buyers to get on the property ladder. Buyers will undoubtedly be anticipating the introduction of the 'Freedom to Buy' scheme to help with this.
Kier Starmer's plan to increase the already higher stamp duty rate on purchases of residential property by non-UK residents by 1% is also seen as a positive move. However, while these measures aim to facilitate homeownership and manage foreign investment, their actual impact on the market, particularly in London, remains to be seen.
In conclusion, while Labour's victory and housing plans bring a sense of optimism and potential for positive change, it is essential for the new government to approach these initiatives with meticulous planning and execution. At Cope & Co., we sincerely hope that the Labour government execute their pledges and ensure it results in a thriving, sustainable property market that benefits all stakeholders.